IMF Maintains Global Growth at 3% for 2026

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its global economic growth forecast for 2026 to 3%, down from 3.1% projected in April. According to the agency, the surge in artificial intelligence did not fully offset the economic impact of the war in the Middle East.

The weight of the Middle East conflict

The Middle East and Central Asia region, the epicenter of the conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran, is the most affected by this adjustment: the IMF estimates growth of just 0.7% in 2026. However, the agency forecasts a strong recovery in 2027, with expansion of 6.5% in the region. Among the countries most affected in the short term are Iraq and Qatar, cited by the IMF due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil trade route.

Latin America, with relative stability

For Latin America, the IMF projects growth near 2.4% in 2026, with notable differences between countries: Brazil would grow at 2.4%, Mexico only 1.2%, and Argentina would lead the region at 3.5%. The region remains relatively insulated from the volatility generated by the Middle East conflict, though not entirely immune to its effects on energy prices.

United States, driven by AI investment

The IMF maintained its growth forecast for the United States at 2.3%, attributing much of this performance to strong investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure by technology firms. This factor has partially offset the uncertainty generated by global geopolitical and trade tensions.

A gradual recovery

The agency forecasts global growth will recover to 3.4% in 2027, though still below the 3.5% average recorded between 2024 and 2025. The IMF warned that the magnitude of the recovery will depend largely on the evolution of the Middle East conflict and whether the momentum of artificial intelligence translates into broader productivity gains across the global economy.

Sources: El Tiempo (Colombia).